#but the ig post that i sourced is the earliest version of it i could find

[a-dream-seeking-light]

“Huge lightning bolt in Kangiqsujuaq yesterday [on July 4, 2023] photographed by Natasha Irniq, followed by loud thunder! ᐊᖏᔪᖅ ᖃᐅᒻᒪᓚᒃ ᑲᖏᕐᓱᔪᐊᒥ ᐃᑉᐸᓴᖅ ᐊᑦᔨᓕᐊᕕᓂᖅ ᓇᑖᓴ ᐃᕐᓂᒧᑦ, ᑭᖑᓂᐊᒍᑦ ᓂᐸᕆᑦᑐᕕᓂᖅ” --Alec Gordon/CBC Tuttavik

Here are both unedited shots from the photographer’s original FB post: 

Natasha Irniq:  Wow  kallialukainatuq

Also on FB is a link to her video of the event.  

Here’s an interview from CBC Tuttavik aired on July 5, 2023. 

And finally here is a reddit thread in which a theory is discussed that most likely explains this as an optical camera effect caused by its horizontally rolling shutter.   

[duggardata]

Apparently, Jinger Suffered A Miscarriage in November

Everything Duggar Data Knows About It, So Far.

ICYMI—Jinger is pregnant, due in November 2020!  She announced via People yesterday.  Sad news came alongside happy, though...  People also shared that Jinger experienced a miscarriage prior to her current pregnancy.

Pregnancy loss now factors into the Predictor, so Duggar Data is trying to figure out as much information as possible about when the miscarriage occurred, and at how far along.  This Post summarizes what I’ve been able to piece together.

Since some may not want to read on...  After the jump.

Fair Warning—This Post is absurdly long.  There’s a TL;DR at the end, if you’re in a hurry!

When Did Jinger Miscarry?

Per Jinger and Jeremy, it happened in November 2019.  (Initially, People simply said it happened “last fall,” which ostensibly includes September to November.  Then, the Vuolos posted on Instagram about the loss, revealing it had occurred in November, specifically.)  Jinger further shared that it happened on a Tuesday; she said she and Jeremy shared the news with family on “Monday evening,” but miscarried “the next morning.”  [Jeremy’s IG Post, Jinger’s IG Post.  Permalinks provided in the text above.]

So, a Tuesday in November 2019...  We’ve already narrowed it down a lot.  The possibilities include only these dates—

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Since yesterday, we’ve also been provided two additional data sources, both of which provide further insight into the timing of the miscarriage—

The Counting On Trailer.  TLC announced the new season alongside Jinger + Jeremy’s pregnancy announcement, and dropped the first trailer.  At 0:30–0:46, the trailer features Jinger + Jeremy announcing a pregnancy to Jinger’s family...  The Duggars are gathered at the Big House for “their family fun night,” which is held weekly on Mondays.  The night’s activity was gingerbread house–building.  Skyping in from California, Jinger + Jeremy build a gingerbread version of their family, complete a clearly–pregnant ginger Jinger.

Some have assumed that the ‘Jingerbread’ Announcement was for the Vuolos’ current pregnancy, but it’s clear to me that it wasn’t.  The timing doesn’t make sense.  Jinger is due with Vuolo #2* in November 2020, and she wouldn’t have learned she was pregnant until ~March 2020.  Given gingerbread’s association with fall and the holidays, Duggar Data really doubts that the Duggars decided to do a gingerbread–themed family night in March or April.  Additionally, social distancing due to COVID–19 was well underway by March / April 2020, yet the clip shows a large gathering of not–same–household Duggars.  Notably, Jessa + Ben appear in the clip, and they’ve stated that they’re staying away from the Big House during this time.  Taken together, all of this all suggests that the clip wasn’t recorded in March or April 2020—and thus, can’t be an announcement of Jinger’s current pregnancy.  This must be Jinger + Jeremy announcing their pregnancy that ended in miscarriage in November.

Immediately, I hoped that I could figure out the timing based on which Duggar Ladies were visibly pregnant or which Duggar Babies appeared.  Babygeddon was in full force, after all!  Sadly, this didn’t narrow things down much...  Joe + Kendra were present with Addison (b. 11–2–19), but that doesn’t rule anything out; the earliest Monday in November 2019 was November 4th.  (I’d admit it’s slightly unlikely that Kendra made it to Family Night two day after giving birth, but I don’t think it’s impossible...  They live on the Compound.)  Neither Anna nor Lauren, nor Maryella or Bella, is seen.  Josiah appears, but it that doesn’t tell us much, since Lauren wasn’t in labor on a Monday.  (Bella was born on a Friday after ~2 Days of labor.)

Undeterred, I scoured Duggar Instagrams to see if I could figure out what they did and who attended each Family Night in November 2019.  I also looked for any photos in which a Duggar is wearing the same outfit that’s seen in the clip of the ‘Jingerbread’ Announcement...

Based on this sleuthing, I think we can rule out November 4, 2019.  Per Anna, that Family Night was spent stuffing gift boxes for Operation Christmas Child.  Her Post shows dozens of bright red boxes all over the Big House.  No boxes are seen in the ‘Jingerbread’ Announcement clip, but they probably would’ve been if they were there.  (The gingerbread house building activity appeared to take up the entire living room.)  Plus, I think it’s unlikely that they’d do two big activities in one night.

I wasn’t able to figure out the activities at the other Family Nights that month.

I checked Instagram to see if any Duggar visible in the clip was, e.g., out–of–town, and thus wouldn’t have been present at a particular Family Night.  This search didn’t produce any evidence sufficient to rule anything out.

As for the outfit search, it also didn’t produce many leads...  Only one.  Jessa posted a photo on Instagram on Monday, November 25, 2019, in which she’s possibly wearing the same long–sleeve emerald shirt that she’s seen in in the clip.  So, that points slightly towards November 25, 2019 as the date Jinger + Jeremy announced, and November 26, 2019 as the Date of Loss.

The Vuolos’ Instagram Live.  On May 28, 2020 at 4:00 PM, Jinger + Jeremy did an Instagram Live discussing the pregnancy and earlier miscarriage.  The Live gave us various information, but one fact is of particular relevance, here:  Per the Vuolos, Jeremy’s Sister (Valerie) visited them very shortly after Jinger miscarried.  Apparently, her trip was pre–planned, and it just worked out that she was there during a time when they happened to really need help.

Turns out, Valerie Vuolo has a public Instagram—and lucky for us, she posted about the trip in question.  On November 30, 2019, she put up three Posts w/ photos of her, Felicity, and Jeremy, each one tagged Los Angeles, California.  Even more telling, the first Post included #Thanksgiving, which pretty much confirms that Valerie was visiting for the holiday, which was November 28th in 2019.  Bolstering this further, Valerie actually posted the photos on November 30th, and Jinger commented:  “We miss you already!”  So...  Clearly, Valerie is no longer in Los Angeles, at that point.

Based on all of this, I’ve got a very strong suspicion that Jinger miscarried Tuesday, November 26, 2019—i.e., the Tuesday before Thanksgiving—which means she announced the pregnancy to the Duggars on November 25, 2019.  This is mostly based on the apparent timing of Valerie’s trip, but also happens to line up with Jessa’s November 25 IG Post, in which she’s possibly wearing the same shirt she wore for the ‘Jingerbread’ Announcement.  Also, Tuesday, November 26, 2019 happens to be a day where neither Vuolo posted on IG...  Could be a coincidence, though; they didn’t post on Tuesday, November 12th, either.

Duggar Data plans to use November 26, 2019 as Jinger’s Loss Date, for now.  It’s considered “Not Confirmed.”  I think we can rule out November 4th as the announcement date—so if the Loss Date isn’t the 26th, it must be the 12th or 19th.

Was This Her First Miscarriage?

During the Instagram Live on May 28, 2020, Jinger + Jeremy said “thank you” to their followers for all the support they’d received after announcing Jinger’s miscarriage.  Then, they said something about how miscarriage is something that many couples go through, and Jeremy said:  “We’ve now gone through that.”  Duggar Data took this to mean that Jinger’s recent miscarriage wasn’t something they’d gone through before, which obviously means that this must have been Jinger’s first—and, so far, only—miscarriage.

IMO, it is reasonable to conclude that this was Jinger’s first miscarriage.

How Far Along Was She, At The Time?

So far, there’s no definitive data on this; however, it’s clear that it was early on.  On Instagram Live, the Vuolos—Jinger, IIRC—referred to the baby they lost as one “that the Lord blessed us with for such a short time.”  Additionally, there isn’t any reason to assume that Jinger + Jeremy waited until, e.g., the Second Trimester to announce to her family.  (And we know the loss happened the day after she announced to them.)  With Pregnancy #1, Jinger + Jer announced to their families in November 2017, when Jinger was <6 Weeks Along.  (Felicity’s Due Date was July 20, 2018.)  [Shout–out to @undercoverduggarblog, as well as @pickledchickenetti, for your valiant efforts in piecing together the real–life timeline of Counting On.)

Absent contrary evidence, Duggar Data will assume a miscarriage occurred at Exactly 6 Weeks.  Statistically, 90% of miscarriages occur by Week 6, and the lack of concrete loss dates for several miscarriages forced me to create a rule to ensure uniformity in considering pregnancy loss data.

Impact On The Data

I’ll discuss this in an upcoming Post!  Stay tuned.

TL;DR—

Loss Date   A Tuesday in November 2019...  Probably November 26th.  Duggar Data’s spreadsheet says November 26, 2019, but doesn’t label that as “Confirmed.”  That’s what I’m using, for now.

Due Date   Unknown.  Consistent with a uniform rule, Duggar Data will assume the loss occurred at Week 6, Day 0...  The Estimated Due Date associated with November 26, 2019 is July 21, 2020.  That’s what I will use, for now.

1st Loss?  Seems like it was, yes.